Quebec's maple syrup reserve nearly empty after US buying surge

Quebec, the source of the vast majority of the world's maple syrup, is nearly out of its strategic reserve after American buyers rushed to stock up ahead of new U.S. tariffs. The Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, which oversees the stockpile, predicts it will be completely empty by February.

The reserve consists of three warehouses in Quebec with capacity for about 218,000 barrels. Its depletion means that, while new syrup will continue to be produced, the reserve will be unable to cushion any shortfalls in output. Production depends heavily on the weather and can swing sharply from year to year.

Canada is the world's top producer, accounting for more than 75% of global output in 2025, with about 90% of Canadian production coming from Quebec. Demand for Canadian syrup has grown in recent years as producers have diversified beyond the United States. Still, about 65% of Canada's syrup exports go to its southern neighbor, down from 80% two decades ago.

The spike in demand came last year after President Donald Trump launched his global trade war. Anticipating tariffs, Americans bought up Canadian syrup, and total exports jumped nearly 16% in 2025, up from 9% growth in 2024. Exports through the first eight months of 2026 slowed sharply, rising just 2.5% annually. Over the same period, production has lagged, falling 5% last year, according to Canada's statistics agency.

Simon Doré-Ouellet, deputy general manager at the Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, told the Toronto Star that the market's supply of syrup is secure for the coming year. « It is clear, however, that the strategic reserve will need to be replenished over the next few years, » he said, adding that « a good production year in 2027 would be welcome even though we have little control over that. »

A strong season could make a large difference. Quebec has increased its production capacity by 50% over the past six years, Doré-Ouellet told the Star, adding more than 21 million new taps from which sap can be collected from maple trees.

Canada is not the only country to see reserves of a key commodity shrink. The Iran war has pushed oil-consuming countries to draw on crude stockpiles, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982. Japan also had to draw down its rice reserve last year as prices soared amid bad weather and fears of natural disasters that sparked panic buying, though it has since swung to a record surplus this year.

China's strategic pork reserve faces a different problem. After a swine fever outbreak in 2019 pushed prices higher and prompted Beijing to release supplies, prices have since slumped. Weak consumer demand and government encouragement to expand production have led to oversupply, and pork prices have fallen 39% over the last four years, raising deflation concerns across the broader economy. Beijing has repeatedly bought pork for the reserve to support the market, but Hannah Liu, a China economist at Nomura, told the New York Times in May that « there is little to do from the demand side » and that authorities « cannot order other enterprises to purchase more pork. »

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Delaney Sawyer

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Delaney Sawyer covers public affairs, politics, business, culture and daily news for Core Memo. The role focuses on verification, context, and clear explanations for readers.

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