Two Inflation Reports Will Set Social Security’s 2027 Raise

The Social Security increase for 2027 is now down to two inflation reports.

The official cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, will not be known until October. But the range has narrowed enough to give retirees a useful planning number: roughly 3.4% to 3.6%, with 3.5% sitting in the middle of the latest published estimates.

AARP currently projects 3.5%. The Senior Citizens League projects 3.6%. Independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson has a 3.4% rolling estimate. All three calculations remain provisional because the government has published only the first of the three monthly inflation readings that matter for the final formula.

The next checkpoints are September 11 and October 14.

Why July alone cannot settle the COLA

The Social Security Administration uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, to calculate the annual adjustment. It averages the index for July, August and September, then compares that figure with the third-quarter average from the relevant prior year. The percentage increase is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.

For this cycle, the 2025 third-quarter average is 317.265. The July 2026 CPI-W was 327.104, up 3.4% from a year earlier.

That first number gives the 2027 COLA a starting point, but it does not lock anything in. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August CPI on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. September CPI data are scheduled for October 14 at the same time. Once September is available, all three months needed for the calculation will be known.

The Social Security Administration says the next COLA will be announced in October. AARP and the Senior Citizens League are both pointing to October 14 as the expected announcement date because that is when the decisive September inflation data arrive.

A simple scenario map

The current forecasts can be understood without a complicated model.

Starting from July’s CPI-W level, if the index increased by about 0.3% in both August and September, the final COLA would be roughly 3.4%. If the two monthly increases were about 0.4%, the result would be close to 3.5%. At about 0.5% per month, the calculation would come out around 3.6%.

These are not forecasts of monthly inflation. They show the path required to land at each point in the current consensus range.

That matters because recent forecasts have been drifting lower. The Senior Citizens League estimated 3.8% in July, then cut its estimate to 3.6% after the July inflation data were released in August. AARP’s current forecast is a tenth lower at 3.5%, while Johnson’s August 25 rolling estimate is 3.4%.

For now, a mid-3% COLA is the cleanest base case.

The gross increase is only half the household calculation

The average retired worker received $2,085.98 a month in Social Security benefits in July. Applying the current forecast range to that amount produces a useful illustration.

At 3.4%, the monthly increase would be about $70.92, bringing the benefit to roughly $2,156.90. At 3.5%, the increase would be about $73.01, for a total near $2,158.99. At 3.6%, the increase would be about $75.10, lifting the figure to around $2,161.08.

Those figures are before Medicare premiums, taxes or other deductions.

The Medicare side is especially important. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report estimates that the standard Part B premium could rise from $202.90 a month in 2026 to $209.50 in 2027. That would be a $6.60 increase. The final premium is not yet set, but if the estimate holds, it would trim the net gain from the COLA for many beneficiaries who have Part B premiums withheld from Social Security.

A retiree receiving the average benefit and a 3.5% COLA could therefore see about $73 more in gross Social Security, but closer to $66 more after only the projected increase in the standard Part B premium is considered. Individual results will differ.

What to watch from here

The September 11 inflation report is the next meaningful signal. If CPI-W comes in softer than the paths now embedded in forecasts, estimates are likely to move toward the low end of the range. A hotter number would put 3.6% or more back in play.

October 14 is the finish line because the September CPI-W completes the third-quarter average. By then the debate over forecasts ends and the formula takes over.

Until then, the best planning assumption is not a single guaranteed number but a narrow band. The evidence available today puts 2027 Social Security benefits on track for a larger percentage increase than 2026, with the final result likely to be decided by just a few tenths of a point in the next two CPI-W readings.

Author

Delaney Sawyer

Society Reporter

Delaney Sawyer covers public affairs, politics, business, culture and daily news for Core Memo. The role focuses on verification, context, and clear explanations for readers.

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