A new Fox News poll indicates that the race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Senate contests in 2026. The survey, conducted from June 23 to 27, shows Democrat Josh Turek holding a narrow 4-point lead over Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, with 50 percent support to her 46 percent. This edge falls within the poll's margin of error, suggesting a highly uncertain outcome in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Tom Harkin in 2008.
The poll highlights significant shifts in voter attitudes toward President Donald Trump, who carried Iowa by 13 points in the 2024 election. Currently, Iowans view Trump negatively by 13 points, with 42 percent favorable and 55 percent unfavorable. This marks a 19-point swing from his positive rating of plus 6 in the November 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis. The change appears to be influencing the Senate race, as Turek benefits from greater enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 67 percent of Democrats saying they are extremely motivated to vote, compared to 53 percent of Republicans.
Economic concerns are driving voter decisions, with 39 percent of Iowans identifying inflation as the most important issue for their Senate vote. Turek holds a 15-point advantage among those voters, while Hinson leads by a commanding 88 points on immigration and border security. Other key issues include healthcare, political divisions, and abortion, though they trail behind inflation. The poll also found that 42 percent of Iowans now say they are falling behind financially, up from 31 percent in 2024, while only 11 percent report getting ahead.
Candidate favorability ratings further illustrate the dynamics of the race. Turek enjoys a net positive rating of 18 points, with 51 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable. In contrast, Hinson's net favorability is negative by 7 points, at 42 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, though she remains more popular than Trump. Among supporters, 82 percent of Turek's backers say they are certain to vote for him, compared to 72 percent of Hinson's supporters, leaving nearly 3 in 10 of her voters open to changing their minds.
Demographic breakdowns reveal distinct coalitions. Turek draws support from women with college degrees, independents, urban voters, and those under 30. Hinson's base includes White evangelical Christians, older men, veterans, and men without college degrees. Her support is strongest among MAGA Republicans, who are 23 points more likely to back her than non-MAGA GOP voters. Overall, Democrats are more unified behind Turek, with 96 percent supporting him, compared to 88 percent of Republicans backing Hinson.
The poll also examined the governor's race, where Democratic nominee Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 9 points, 50 percent to 41 percent. Sand benefits from crossover support, with 11 percent of Hinson's Senate voters favoring him for governor. The survey was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with a sample of 1,003 registered Iowa voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
