A new Fox News Poll reveals widespread voter discontent with the economy and political system, with a majority of voters calling for substantial or dramatic change. The poll, conducted in July, shows that 53% of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district if the election were held today, compared to 46% for Republicans. This 7-point Democratic advantage is just outside the poll's margin of error and marks the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996.
President Donald Trump's job approval remains near a record low at 39%, unchanged for the third consecutive month and just one point above his low of 38% in October 2017. Approval of Trump is slightly lower than former President Barack Obama's rating at the same point in his second term, which was 42% in July 2014. Trump received net-negative ratings on key issues, including immigration (42% approve, 57% disapprove), Iran (34-66%), the economy (33-67%), and inflation (27-73%).
Economic pessimism is widespread, with three-quarters of voters rating the economy negatively, a figure that has remained steady for the past six months. Another three-quarters say inflation has caused them financial hardship, including 34% who report serious hardship, up from 26% last year. Fifty-four percent of voters expect the economy to worsen in the coming year, with only Republicans expressing optimism (71%), while Democrats (75%) and independents (64%) expect it to worsen.
Voters express strong dissatisfaction with both political parties and the broader economic system. Some 70% say the Republican Party is closely tied to elite interests, while 55% say the same about the Democratic Party. The 15-point gap reflects more Democrats and independents viewing the GOP as tied to elites, but even Republicans are equally likely to describe both parties as close to elites. Disillusionment runs deep, with 48% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans saying they feel betrayed by their party, primarily for selling out to special interests.
Perceptions that the political system favors elites are reshaping views of the economy. The number of voters who accept income inequality because that's how the economy works has fallen 16 points compared to 2014, from 62% to 46%, while the share who want government action has more than doubled, from 13% to 30%. At the same time, 65% think the country's system is rigged in favor of the wealthy, up 9 points compared to 2019. By a 2-to-1 margin, voters say it is more important to elect new people than keep those with experience.
Overall, 19% of voters say they want revolutionary change in the nation's government, while many others want substantial (38%) or dramatic (23%) change. Almost twice as many Democrats (52%) as Republicans (28%) want dramatic or revolutionary change. Nearly 7 in 10 voters disapprove of both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, with 32% of Republicans disapproving of their party's lawmakers and 39% of Democrats disapproving of theirs. More than 8 in 10 independents disapprove of both parties' lawmakers.
Fully 85% of voters support a mandatory retirement age for members of Congress, up 20 points since 2002. Of those in favor, 80% think the cap should be set before age 75, with 61% selecting a cutoff between 65 and 74, a boundary supported by more than half of every generation. Just 50% of voters have a positive view of capitalism, down from a high of 57% in 2019, while 30% view socialism favorably, up from 27% last year but below the 32% who said the same in 2021.
On issue preferences, voters say Democrats can better handle income inequality (+22 points), healthcare (+21), inflation (+10), the economy (+9), and foreign policy (+7). Republicans hold the advantage on crime (+7 points), while government spending (Democrats +3) and national security (Republicans +2) are more evenly divided. On immigration, the GOP had an 8-point edge in April, but now Democrats are preferred by one point.
More Democrats (68%) say they are extremely motivated to vote in November than Republicans (57%), an 11-point margin. By a 25-point spread, more MAGA Republicans (66%) are extremely motivated than non-MAGA Republicans (41%). When looking only at counties where the 2024 presidential vote was close, with Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris within 10 points, the Democratic candidate leads by 59-41%.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson, noted that while the data look promising for Democrats, some of their support is in less-contested districts, padding national totals without adding House seats. Shaw said the best estimates suggest the GOP could retain the House even if Democrats win the national vote by 2-3 points, but if Democrats win by 6-7 points, they probably take the House.
