Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon this weekend, headlining UFC 329 against Max Holloway in a rematch more than a decade in the making. The event, set for T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, marks McGregor's first fight in five years and has drawn significant attention from both fans and bettors. While McGregor remains the biggest box office star in combat sports, analysts caution that the betting lines may favor Holloway given the circumstances surrounding the matchup.
The two fighters first met in 2013, with McGregor winning by unanimous decision. However, the landscape has shifted considerably since then. Holloway has competed eight times in the Octagon during McGregor's absence, including five title bouts, while McGregor has been sidelined due to injury and legal issues. Holloway's recent record includes a win over Dustin Poirier, who defeated McGregor by TKO in their last two meetings. Holloway also averages more significant strikes landed per minute and absorbs fewer, giving him statistical advantages heading into the fight.
Betting odds have fluctuated as the fight approaches, with McGregor initially favored but expected to draw heavy public action. Sportsbooks often see more liability on favorites in combat sports due to public betting patterns, and McGregor's star power could drive the line further in Holloway's favor. Analysts suggest waiting until closer to fight time to place bets, as McGregor's odds may shorten, offering better value on Holloway. The main card also features several other compelling matchups with betting opportunities.
In the co-main event, Paddy Pimblett faces Benoit Saint Denis in a lightweight bout. Pimblett, ranked sixth in the division, is coming off a loss to Justin Gaethje, a defeat that has aged well as Gaethje later unified the lightweight title. Pimblett's ability to go the distance with Gaethje, something even Ilia Topuria could not do, has boosted his stock. Saint Denis, on a four-fight winning streak, has never gone the distance in the Octagon, which could favor Pimblett's experience in later rounds. Pimblett at plus-money is seen as good value by some analysts.
Another key fight is a bantamweight rematch between Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista. Sandhagen won their first meeting in 2019 by submission but has lost two of his last three bouts, both to top-ranked contenders. Bautista has won nine of his last ten fights, including a first-round submission in February. Sandhagen's experience in championship and title eliminator bouts, along with his striking edge and durability, makes him an appealing underdog pick. Four of Sandhagen's five Octagon losses have come against former champions or the current titleholder.
In the flyweight division, Brandon Royval takes on kickboxing champion Kavanagh. Royval has a history of exciting fights, with 20 of his 26 career matches ending by knockout or submission. His recent loss to Joshua Van won Fight of the Year honors. Kavanagh, a five-time K-1 champion, is the betting favorite, but Royval's submission skills could pose a threat. Analysts expect Royval to attempt takedowns, leaving him vulnerable to Kavanagh's precision striking.
The preliminary card includes a lightweight bout between Bobby Green and McKinney. Green, a veteran with more than twice as many career fights as his opponent, has seen his odds shift from underdog to slight favorite. McKinney has never gone the distance in his 26 career fights, with his last seven ending in the first round. While Green's experience is a factor, McKinney's striking stats are slightly better, and his early-round power could be decisive.
UFC 329 promises a night of high-stakes action, with McGregor's return headlining a card full of intriguing matchups. Whether bettors side with the returning star or the more active Holloway, the event is set to deliver drama and excitement in Las Vegas.
