Ukraine's intensifying campaign against Russia's oil infrastructure is having a growing impact inside the country, forcing one of the world's largest energy producers to restrict diesel exports, pursue fuel imports, and confront shortages stretching from occupied Crimea to cities deep in Russian territory. The consequences are becoming increasingly visible, with former Russian opposition politician and commentator Maxim Katz noting that the shortages represent one of the first direct ways many Russians have experienced the war's effects.
Katz, who lives in exile in Israel, told Fox News Digital that the fuel crisis is particularly significant ahead of State Duma elections scheduled for September. While elections in Russia are neither free nor competitive, they still serve an important function for President Vladimir Putin by projecting public support to regional leaders, business figures, and other members of the elite. If the elections show low support, questions could arise about Putin's control over the system, something he wants to avoid.
The fuel crisis threatens Putin's effort to portray himself as fully in control and to keep the cost of the war away from ordinary Russians. Katz argued that Putin tried to convince everyone that Moscow would continue its regular life and that the war would not affect them. But when the war comes home, it changes the equation entirely.
Russia, historically one of the world's largest exporters of oil and refined products, has been forced to seek fuel supplies from abroad. Reuters reported that Moscow approached Kazakhstan about importing approximately 50,000 metric tons of gasoline after refinery outages reduced Russian gasoline output by roughly 25% from a year earlier. This reversal is striking, as Katz described it as crazy that Russia now has to buy fuel from Kazakhstan.
The campaign reached a new milestone when Ukrainian drones struck the Omsk refinery, Russia's largest, roughly 1,700 miles from Ukrainian-held territory. The facility temporarily halted processing after the attack, according to Reuters. Days later, another strike shut Russia's Saratov refinery for the third time this year. These attacks are part of a broader strategy to disrupt the infrastructure that powers Russia's military and economy.
Retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, former commander of U.S. European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said the effects are already becoming significant. He noted that Ukraine's campaign against Russia's oil and energy infrastructure is having a real and growing impact on the Russian homeland, with reported reductions in fuel production close to a third by some estimates. These strikes are beginning to seriously impact not just the economy but the Kremlin's ability to sustain its war effort and military operations.
Breedlove emphasized that Russia cannot effectively defend every refinery and energy facility across its enormous territory, and that is the core problem for Moscow. Every asset deployed to defend infrastructure is an asset not deployed to the frontlines. This strategic dilemma is forcing Russia to make difficult choices about resource allocation.
Moscow has already taken emergency measures. Russia banned diesel exports through the end of July as drone attacks forced unplanned refinery shutdowns and reduced domestic supplies. Seaborne exports of diesel and gasoline fell 39% in June compared with May and 46% from the previous year, according to Reuters. These measures highlight the severity of the crisis.
Ukraine's ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, said American intelligence has played an important role in helping Kyiv penetrate Russia's extensive air-defense network. He credited the United States for helping Ukrainian missiles and drones avoid Russian anti-missile defense. The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, reported that the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure. Reuters, citing the Financial Times, also reported that U.S. intelligence has helped Kyiv strike important Russian energy assets, including oil refineries, far beyond the front line.
Katz cautioned that the Kremlin would likely continue prioritizing military supplies even as civilian shortages worsen. He noted that Putin will find the fuel for the tanks, but the real issue is his grip on Russia. The fuel shortages are becoming a political liability for Putin, as they directly affect ordinary Russians and challenge his narrative of control and stability.
