Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has once again positioned himself at the center of NATO politics as President Donald Trump prepares for the upcoming alliance summit in Ankara. Trump has praised Erdoğan as «a friend» and «a respected leader,» underscoring a relationship that could shape defense talks between Washington and Turkey, including Ankara's long-running effort to restore deeper military cooperation. The moment highlights Erdoğan's remarkable political journey: once regarded as one of NATO's most troublesome allies after taking delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defense system in 2019, Turkey has become increasingly difficult for the alliance to sideline as the war in Ukraine drags on, instability grips the Middle East, and the Black Sea grows more strategic.
For many observers, Erdoğan remains an enigma. Rather than being driven by a fixed worldview, experts argue, he has repeatedly reinvented himself politically, adopting whichever ideology best serves his overriding objective: remaining in power. Gönül Tol, founding director of the Middle East Institute's Turkey Program and author of «Erdoğan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria,» described him as deeply pragmatic. «He's not an ideological man,» Tol told Fox News Digital. «He's very pragmatic, first and foremost a populist.» This pragmatism has allowed Erdoğan to navigate shifting domestic and international pressures for more than two decades.
Erdoğan's roots lie in Turkey's Islamist political movement. Educated at an Imam Hatip religious school, he entered politics through National Outlook, a right-wing Islamist movement founded by Necmettin Erbakan, and eventually became mayor of Istanbul as a member of Erbakan's Welfare Party. After founding the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001, Erdoğan abandoned the Islamist label, presenting himself instead as a «conservative democrat» committed to economic reform and closer ties with Europe. This shift marked the first of several political reinventions. When the AKP swept to power in 2002, Turkey was seeking European Union membership, military influence over politics was shrinking, and Erdoğan promised democratic reforms, economic modernization, and closer ties with the West. Many liberals and centrists initially supported him. «He often said, 'I'm not an Islamist anymore. I'm a conservative democrat,'» Tol said. «And that brand really served him well.» Those early years transformed both Turkey's economy and Erdoğan's popularity.
After consolidating power, Erdoğan began another transformation. Following the Arab Spring in 2011, he increasingly portrayed himself as a champion of political Islam, backing Islamist movements across the Middle East while presenting himself domestically as the defender of Turkey's conservative religious majority. «He wanted to inject more Islam into public life, into education,» Tol said. «He was using this more Islamist narrative... the goal was always to acquire more power.» That anti-Western turn went beyond rhetoric. In 2016, Erdoğan accused the U.S.-led coalition of supporting terrorist groups in Syria, including ISIS and Kurdish militias that Turkey considers terrorist organizations—an allegation the State Department dismissed as «ludicrous,» according to Reuters. His increasingly vocal support for Hamas and sharp criticism of Israel became defining features of his foreign policy. In 2023, Erdoğan said, «The perpetrators of the massacre and the destruction taking place in Gaza are those providing unlimited support for Israel,» adding that Israel's attacks and those backing them amounted to «murder and mental illness,» according to Reuters. Tol cautions against viewing those positions alone as evidence that Erdoğan remains primarily motivated by Islamism. «Anti-Israel sentiment cuts across ideological lines in Turkey,» she said, arguing that his foreign policy has consistently reflected political calculation more than religious doctrine.
As Turkey's economy slowed and regional ambitions faltered, Erdoğan pivoted once again. He embraced Turkish nationalism, built alliances with hardline nationalist parties, and cultivated the image of an indispensable strongman capable of restoring Turkey's historical influence. Supporters credit him with transforming Turkey into a regional power. «He does have genuine support,» Tol said, estimating his support at roughly 35%. Some supporters depend on government assistance and patronage networks built under his rule. Others believe Erdoğan restored dignity to conservative religious Turks who long felt marginalized by the country's secular establishment. Still others view his increasingly assertive foreign policy as proof Turkey has reclaimed its place on the world stage. «They think, 'We have become a world-class nation,'» Tol said.
To critics, Erdoğan's rule has hollowed out Turkey's democracy while jailing rivals, journalists, and activists. The country's economy, once a success story, has faced severe challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation. Yet Erdoğan's ability to adapt has kept him in power. As NATO faces new security challenges, including the war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, Turkey's strategic location and military capabilities have made it an indispensable ally. The upcoming summit in Ankara will test whether Erdoğan's latest reinvention—as a pivotal NATO power broker—can translate into tangible gains for Turkey, including the restoration of military cooperation and potential arms deals. For now, Erdoğan remains one of the alliance's most unpredictable and consequential leaders, a figure whose political survival instincts have consistently defied expectations.
