Memorandum
- From
- Connor Quincy via TIME.com
- Date
- Filed
- Politics·3 min to read
- Re
Democrats Flip Multiple Seats Forecasters Expected to Stay Republican
ReDemocrats Flip Multiple Seats Forecasters Expected to Stay Republican
Several Democrats won House and Senate seats that all ten forecasts evaluated by TIME had assigned to Republicans or to a toss-up.
A wave of Democratic victories has surprised many election forecasters. None of the ten predictions TIME evaluated before the election had named several Democrats who have now actually won their races as winners. All ten predictions rated these races as Republican wins or as toss-ups. Overall, the forecasts missed more than a dozen races.
Analysts had generally expected a shift in favor of Democrats but underestimated its scale. Even a week after the election, some races had not yet been decided by the news agency AP.
Among the most striking results is the victory of Annie Andrews in South Carolina. She won the state Senate seat and is the first Democrat to serve in the state Senate there in over 20 years. In Indiana, J.D. Ford defeated three-term congresswoman Victoria Spartz. Ford is the first openly gay member of Congress from Indiana.
In Missouri, Fred Wellman unseated seven-term Republican congresswoman Ann Wagner. In North Carolina, several Democrats won: Cyril Jefferson, a former mayor of High Point, defeated incumbent congressman Addison McDowell. Richard Ojeda beat Richard Hudson, chair of the Republican National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Paul Barringer, a former Republican, prevailed over first-term incumbent Brad Knott. LaKesha Womack defeated Tim Moore, having reportedly spent about $55,600.
In New Jersey, Zack Mullock beat four-term congressman Jeff Van Drew in a district that Donald Trump had won in the presidential election. In Nevada, Teresa Benitez-Thompson became the first Democrat ever to win the NV-2 district. In Ohio, Kristina Knickerbocker narrowly defeated twelve-term congressman Mike Turner, flipping the seat. Don Leonard also won in Ohio, defeating three-term incumbent Mike Carey.
Many of the winning Democrats had less money available than their Republican opponents, in some cases many times less. Outside campaign spending frequently benefited the Democratic challengers in key races. In the Knickerbocker race, about $7.7 million came from outside sources, including $4.6 million from the House Majority PAC. In Nevada's NV-2 district, a record-level $6.5 million in outside spending was recorded in the primary election.
The race in Mississippi remains open. There, Democrat Scott Colom currently leads Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. A win would be the first Senate seat for Democrats in that state since 1982. Colom criticizes forecasters for discouraging donations to candidates in southern states.
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