Memorandum
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- Derek Weston via Fast Company
- Date
- Filed
- Business·4 min to read
- Re
Florida housing market corrections continue to ease, data shows
ReFlorida housing market corrections continue to ease, data shows
New data from ResiClub shows Florida's housing market correction is losing intensity, with some metros seeing mild price gains and smaller declines.
Florida's housing market correction is gradually losing intensity, according to new data from ResiClub, with several metro areas showing signs of stabilization after years of price declines. While softness remains in parts of the Sunshine State, the pace of the recalibration has eased throughout 2026, and some homebuilders who made aggressive affordability adjustments have reported finding the market in many of their Florida communities.
Year-over-year price shifts between July 2025 and July 2026 show improvement compared with the prior 12-month period across most Florida metro areas. Seasonally adjusted month-over-month data from the Zillow Home Value Index indicates that the intensity of the correction has eased over the past year. Some metros, particularly in the Florida Panhandle and parts of Northern Florida, are now seeing mildly positive month-over-month gains. Areas still experiencing declines, such as Punta Gorda and Cape Coral, are seeing much smaller drops than they were seven months ago.
Punta Gorda, which has been passing through a material correction since 2022, is poised for a firming in year-over-year home prices, the data suggests. Home prices there spiked 70.1% between March 2020 and August 2022, but are now down 24.5% since June 2022. Prices in that market remain 29.7% above March 2020 levels.
The easing intensity stems from several factors. As Florida home prices have softened, froth and overvaluation have come down and fundamentals have been healing across many markets. Builders have slowed spec construction, and some sellers who are not in financial distress have decided to wait out the weakness. The surge in active inventory has stalled, and inventory is now down somewhat year-over-year in most Florida markets.
Florida's particularly intense overheating during the Pandemic Housing Boom was the key reason for its post-boom downside vulnerability. While U.S. home prices rose 41% between March 2020 and June 2022, Florida home prices surged 51% over the same period, leaving parts of the state significantly overvalued.
Five factors came together to create a supply-demand equilibrium shift large enough to reveal that downside risk. The Pandemic Housing Boom's migration surge to Florida fizzled out, with net domestic migration of +23,000 in 2025 compared with +314,000 in 2022. Without the influx of deep-pocketed buyers from up North, Florida home prices have had to rely more on local incomes.
The Surfside condo collapse in June 2021, which killed 98 people, led to new structural safety rules requiring more inspections and additional funds for repairs. That has resulted in Florida HOAs issuing high special assessments and monthly fee increases. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also tightened condo underwriting with stricter reserve requirements, which has had a greater impact on older coastal Florida condo buildings.
Hurricane Ian, which hit in September 2022, spurred additional softening in Southwest Florida markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda. The storm caused an estimated $112.9 billion in total damage, making it the third-costliest U.S. hurricane on record. The need for renovations after thousands of homes were damaged helped create additional softening in the region.
Florida also has a higher level of supply elasticity than many housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest, which has contributed to the correction dynamics. The seasonally adjusted data suggests that year-over-year figures will continue to firm up mildly in the coming months across most Florida markets.
