Some estimates show American forces have used more than half of U.S. stockpiles of certain weapons systems during the war with Iran, and defense analysts are warning that the depleted inventories could undermine readiness for a future conflict with China.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded that the United States still has enough missiles to sustain combat against Iran under any plausible scenario. Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department, said the immediate fight is not the main problem. «We can go on against Iran for quite a long time, even if we've used half the inventory. That means that half the inventories are still available,» he said. «The risk is about a future conflict in the Western Pacific against China.»
That concern echoes reports that military officials are increasingly worried about the weapons inventory if the United States becomes involved in other major conflicts. Cancian said the drain on munitions had already affected operations. «The depletion of munitions was a major topic and a major reason for the suspension of air attacks,» he said. «Our inventories were getting way below what the war planners wanted. That might encourage China to do something.»
According to the CSIS analysis, nearly one-third of Tomahawk missiles have been used since the war began, and almost two-thirds of Patriot missile interceptors have been depleted. Just over half of precision strike missiles remain. CSIS focused on seven key weapons systems that have proven effective in the Iran campaign and would also be valuable in a possible Pacific fight.
President Donald Trump rejected concerns about shortages. «We have a lot of ammunition, different types,» Trump said in July. «I mean, more than we could ever use, no matter what. But we have a lot. I'd like to have more, to be honest.»
Lawmakers have seized on the issue as evidence that the U.S. defense industrial base is not ready for a prolonged major war. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, said the Middle East conflict has exposed problems in the country's ability to produce weapons quickly. «We have a defense industrial base that needs to be fixed at a very critical time in our history with the conflict in the Middle East,» McCaul said. «President Xi of China is watching our stockpiles very closely as he contemplates threatening behavior towards the Taiwan straits, and, so, it all kind of factors in together here. And to be a strong United States, we need a strong military and project strength abroad.»
Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-Pa., said he has real concerns about the defense industrial base. «God forbid we find ourselves in a lengthy, serious war in our ability to produce what we need,» he said. He added that weapons production is an area where cooperation is possible across party lines.
The Pentagon has responded with a major spending push. The fiscal year 2027 budget request includes $5.8 billion for Tomahawk missiles, a 513% increase from the fiscal year 2026 request. Funding for precision strike missiles would rise 245%, while spending for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense would increase 650% and the request for Patriot Missile Segment Enhancement is 927% higher.
Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, said he would support a large defense package to rebuild munitions. «Listen, if it's a $1.5 trillion package for defense, I'm all in. I really am,» Nehls said. «The munitions are going to be there. We're going continue to do what we have to do to protect the world, protect Israel and everybody else in the region.»
Even if lawmakers approve the money, new weapons will take years to reach the battlefield. Cameron Tracy, a senior research scholar at the University of California, Berkeley, said complex manufacturing means depleted stockpiles leave the United States materially worse off in the current conflict. «It takes quite a long time for the U.S. to produce new interceptors. They're complex manufacturing assemblages, and thus depleting those stockpiles does leave the U.S. materially worse off than it otherwise would have been in the current conflict,» Tracy said.
Patriot missiles requested in the fiscal year 2027 budget are not expected to reach front-line units for about three and a half years. Tomahawk deliveries could take nearly four years, and some munitions orders may take as long as five years.
Before the war, Cancian said, it typically took about two years for the first system to arrive and another year for the last delivery. The process requires contracts, subcontractors and materials, and wartime demand has stretched those timelines further. The Trump administration has set up framework agreements with contractors intended to expand production capacity for key munitions, including new facilities and more ambitious delivery schedules.
Cancian said expanding production is possible but slow. «First, you have to recruit more people and train them up,» he said. «Then you can expand your facilities, but that takes time. You got to build the facilities, and you got to get all the permits and everything else. So, it can be done. We're seeing it happen, but, again, it takes time.»
The combination of reduced stockpiles and long replenishment timelines has pushed the state of U.S. munitions to the center of the national security debate, as officials weigh the risk of continued operations in the Middle East against the prospect of a larger confrontation in the Pacific.
