Alberta Votes on First Step Toward Possible Separation From Canada

Alberta voters will decide Monday whether the province should remain in Canada or begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation, a vote that tests how far a once-fringe movement has traveled in Canada's oil heartland. The ballot does not ask Albertans to leave Canada outright. It asks whether the province should take the first formal step toward a possible exit, and Premier Danielle Smith, who called the vote but supports remaining in Canada, has said support for starting that process — around 23% in a recent poll — is «still too high for my liking.»

The province's place in the national economy gives the vote unusual weight. Alberta holds the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves and sends roughly 90% of its crude exports to the United States, making its energy sector central both to the province's identity and to its long-running fights with Ottawa. Liberal prime ministers Pierre Trudeau and, decades later, his son Justin became deeply unpopular in Alberta over energy policy. Justin Trudeau's government imposed a national carbon tax and other climate measures that Alberta leaders said hurt the oil industry.

Yet for years separatist parties typically drew only 1% or 2% of the vote, according to former Alberta premier Jason Kenney. That changed with the pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy, which paralyzed parts of Ottawa and blocked major Canada-U.S. border crossings. The convoy began over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers but grew into a broader revolt against pandemic restrictions. «They needed a new cause,» Kenney said. «And it naturally morphed into separatism.»

Jeff Rath, a leader of the independence movement, said federal vaccine rules preventing unvaccinated Canadians from flying were his breaking point. «If Trudeau won't let me leave Alberta, I'm just going to pick up my whole province and go,» Rath recalled telling a friend. «COVID was really the straw that broke the camel's back.» He added that «a lot of people were radicalized by the convoy.»

Kenney said the movement also became more professional, building organizations, raising money and drawing in political operatives with campaign and fundraising experience. He described substantial overlap between separatist activists and people who support Russian President Vladimir Putin or believe conspiracy theories about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while stressing he was describing activists rather than typical separation voters, whom he characterized as frustrated Albertans sending Ottawa a message. He said the MAGA movement has been «inspirational» for some separatist activists, who «tried to infiltrate with at least some success» the United Conservative Party he founded. Smith replaced Kenney in 2022 after appealing to party members angry over COVID-19 restrictions. «Literally, you can look at the players,» Kenney said of the convoy and separatist movements. «It's the same people.»

Prime Minister Mark Carney has made getting Alberta oil to new markets a national priority and backs a proposed pipeline to the West Coast. His more business- and energy-friendly policies, along with his opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and 51st-state rhetoric, have made the federal Liberal leader unusually popular in conservative Alberta. Kenney, one of the most prominent conservative critics of Trudeau's approach to Alberta, said Carney «speaks as an Albertan» and is moving in the right direction on energy. Rath called Carney a «formidable opponent» and acknowledged an uphill battle, saying he would be «thrilled» with more than 30% of the vote — well short of a majority. «Canada is facing real threats to our economy, to our security, to our way of life,» Carney said. «We have to be strong and we are stronger together.»

Separatists have taken their campaign directly to Washington. Rath confirmed he and other independence advocates met with U.S. State Department officials three times and presented a document outlining what an independent Alberta could offer the United States. He claimed people involved in the meetings were going directly to the White House and that a possible oil pipeline through the U.S. to the Pacific was «literally a topic of our last meeting.» The State Department said it «regularly meets with a wide range of representatives» and that «the vote is a decision for the people of Alberta.» Kenney called the outreach «bonkers,» saying people with «zero democratic mandate» were discussing with a foreign government «the status of a separate state that does not exist.» U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called Alberta «a natural partner.»

Keith Wilson, another independence leader who was lead counsel for the 2022 convoy organizers, said separatists see the vote as a way to give Alberta more leverage in dealing with Ottawa, even short of independence. «That's right, because it's called leverage. It's called negotiation,» Wilson said, adding he would accept substantial structural changes to Alberta's relationship with Ottawa short of independence. Kenney said he does not expect the movement to fade. «I don't think it will recede,» he said.

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Connor Quincy

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Connor Quincy covers public affairs, politics, business, culture and daily news for Core Memo. The role focuses on verification, context, and clear explanations for readers.

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